AI may soon be used to predict airline delays
Imagine a world where airline delays were predicted in advance.
Agents could rearrange plans for travellers while they are still in the sky, not only saving time but creating a massive value add.
According to Stephane Cheikh, Artificial Intelligence Program Director at SITA, the answer to predicting these delays may well be AI.
Disruption is one of the main issues facing the air transport industry.
We’ve all experienced or heard about disruption causing delays, often with huge impacts on passengers, cargo and operations throughout the rest of the day.
Let me put it into perspective: recent figures show average flight delay times at 51 minutes. Delays could be costing the air transport industry as much as $25 billion a year.
IATA estimates an average on-time performance of 76 per cent for the 26 million flights globally each year. Without action, and given the pressures of growth in air travel, problems will only worsen.
That’s why, in their search for operational excellence, both airlines and airports are seeking more control and predictability.
From my own experience, and in recent collaborations with SITA air transport customers, it’s clear that Artificial intelligence (AI) promises a new way forward.
AI embraces the disciplines of Machine Learning, Machine Vision, Natural Language Processing, and Robotics. It’s attracting great interest from airlines and airports. According to SITA’s 2018 Air Transport Insights research, AI is one of the emerging technologies offering future strategic and operational benefits.
The Insights research shows that 66 per cent of airlines are implementing or planning predictive analytics capabilities by 2021.
In the meantime, 79 per cent of airports are using or planning to use AI for predictive analysis to improve operational efficiency (e.g. task automation) by that same year.
With all eyes are on the potential of AI, I can see several very promising signs, based on SITA’s co-developments and experience with customers in the use of AI for predicting flight arrival times. And we are only at the very beginning.
Of course, in predicting flight times, challenges do exist, not least taking account of the multiple stakeholders in the equation. Having said that, for airlines, many factors are under their control. It might surprise you to learn, for example, that fewer than 5 per cent of flight delays are down to extreme weather (see chart).
The main issue in delays is turnaround time. If fueling, catering or cleaning over-run for whatever reason, then flights will continue to be late from thereon in, a headache for the airline and the airport.
Delay causes by year in the US (2008-2017)
Sita is working closely with a major airport in APAC, which is a great example of pioneering work in AI and predictive disruption. Here we’ve shown that AI can draw valuable insights from masses of historical data accumulated from flights and delays coupled with real-time information.
The airport has a complex network involving over 200 organizations. It can get as low as a 30-minute update time on an arrival. Any insight the airport can get into flight arrival times to plan resources is invaluable. Working closely with the airport, we’ve developed the ability to accurately predict arrival times disruption, through a predictive model using AI and data analytics.
Applying Machine Learning to historical and real-time data, the airport can accurately predict flight arrivals two to four hours out.
This data can be used to plan resources and pre-empt the impact on passengers, some of whom may not make a connecting flight. The next step is to improve the accuracy and predictions, especially for shorter flight durations.
Right now, prediction requires the experience of humans to make decisions, because we must assess a whole list of factors, from ATC, maintenance and crew connections to ground handling and scheduling integrity. That’s why I use the words ‘collaborative intelligence’ as we need a combination of human and AI to improve efficiencies.
AI can help humans look at passenger revenue and value, for example, and quickly re-book high revenue and value individuals first if a flight is cancelled. By accelerating historical data value analysis using AI, we can create a list according to priority – at speeds and with levels of accuracy simply impossible by humans.
Then there’s the potential of using AI (Machine Vision, aka Computer Vision) to visually track and monitor all the stakeholders around the aircraft to proactively manage turnaround, and constantly improve coordination and efficiencies. As another focus area for SITA, I can see this delivering far better visibility of aircraft turnaround, helping to identify issues before they happen and driving significantly better on-time performance.
So the future for airlines and airports is undoubtedly getting smarter. AI is starting to link the players and the processes across the passenger journey, providing a smart way of managing an increasingly complex ecosystem. It’s clear to me that AI is taking us one step closer to operational excellence.
This article is an edited version of a blog post written by Stephane Cheikh, Artificial Intelligence Program Director at SITA that first appeared on SITA’s blog. Read the full version here.
Latest News
Two thirds of Australians support introduction of tourism tax, survey reveals
Can you guess which generation was the most outraged at the news? Hint: It is exactly who you think!
“The consumer really just wanted more classic reward availability” – customers underwhelmed by Qantas FF shakeup
All this consumer wants is to sit behind someone that doesn't push their seat back to near-horizontal levels.
Aussie travellers warned of ‘significant’ visa shifts in destinations including Chile, US and Vietnam
To be honest are biggest advice for having a layover in the US, is just don't.
Profile: Delta CEO Ed Bastian
Bastian says the airline business isn't for the faint hearted. We're sure Alan Joyce would agree!
Final Call: Travel DAZE Exec early birds are about to expire
Much like the auctioneer at the hottest sale of the year, we're giving you one more chance to jump at this deal!
Forget the weekend! Experience Gold Coast launches mid-week travel campaign
Your boss might be a bit bothered if you jet off mid-week, but you'll be the envy of all of your Instagram followers.
Victorian Tourism Industry Council warns of losing tourism dollars to NSW & QLD
Trendy cafe's hidden in CBD laneways can only get so many tourism dollars, clearly!
AIME 2024 rustles up $330m for APAC economy
This figure is a 65 per cent increase on 2023, much alike The Nibbler staff's alcohol consumption.
Amex GBT to purchase CWT for $871m
It's big deals like this that get a firm handshake - hence the sore hands over at the CWT and Amex GBT offices.
Boeing cleanout: CEO, chair to go as safety crisis plagues the manufacturer
CEOs are falling thick and fast these days. We should have started up a bingo game with their headshots in the office.
Star boss resigns, admits retaining NSW casino licence unlikely under his leadership
The CEO resigned after 18 months in the role. 'Another one bites the dust' rumoured to be heard playing in Pyrmont.
Corporate Traveller swings amateur golfers around the globe for World Golf Competition
How're your golf skills? Consider yourself a Tiger Woods or often get quadruple bogeys? We take after the latter.
Corporate travellers to spend big on Melbourne F1 despite financial pressures
Part of the attraction is sick days after the event as corporate travellers suffer creaked necks and blown eardrums.
Bonza officially kicks off Gold Coast-Darwin route
The Flying Purple Thumb is back at it with another route. We swear, we're going to make this nickname stick!
South West Sydney Tourism launches Western Sydney Tourism Awards
Penrith's 3 consecutive NRL premierships wasn't enough? The people of Western Sydney could fill the trophy cabinet more!
Hotels vs. Airbnb: Industry leaders at odds over who should pay accommodation levy
There's not as much gore in the Hotels vs. Airbnb saga as there is in Alien vs. Predator, but it's just as thrilling!
Singapore Airlines revamps premium economy with new menu, amenity kit
Felt Singapore Airlines was lacking "the sauce" (as the kids say). Bolster belief in the carrier's je na sais quoi here.
Business Events Adelaide set for 20th Destination SA event
Destination SA turns 20! Hopefully it's not celebrated with vodka cruisers and vapes like most 20th birthdays.
Boeing’s woes delay massive Virgin Australia order
This delay means Virgin staffers will be without that new plane smell, inspiring us to sell it in a can.
All the winners from the 2023 Qantas Australian Tourism Awards
Somehow missed this news recently? Good thing you're subscribed to our fabulous newsletter!
Corporate international travel from Brisbane up 30% YOY: Flight Centre
Queenslanders seem keen to go somewhere that actually serves good beer! Sorry, we actually like Great Northern.
Amora Brisbane undergoes $30m remodelling, geared up for MICE offerings
When $30m goes into an amazing hotel to get it geared up for MICE offerings, that's amore!
Corporate Travel Management’s CEO Laura Ruffles steps down
CTM confirmed that Ruffles will be stepping down due to a personal health issue, effective immediately.
Qatar Airways crowned World’s Best MICE Airline at World MICE Awards
You could say Qatar Airways really 'nabbed the cheese' with this one! Alright, we'll see ourselves out...
Qantas, Jetstar & Virgin hike airfares as supplier costs inflate
Supplier increases means you'll pay more. It's like pass the parcel, but instead of getting a present, you owe money.
NSW Central Coast wins global sustainability award for promoting ecotourism at ITB
NSW Central Coast jumped the gun on St. Patricks Day and got the green celebrations going early!
PHOTOS: RuPaul’s Drag Race stars hit Kings Canyon for Priscilla’s 30th anniversary
The stars have renamed the iconic spot 'Queens Canyon'. No name change to the adjacent 'Priscilla's Crack', however.
Air NZ to suspend Auckland-Chicago route amid aircraft troubles
Sorry Kiwis, your craving for authentic deep dish pizza will go unsatiated (or you could just fly with another airline).
Tasmanian Premier promises to build the world’s largest chocolate fountain if re-elected
If only sticky 6-year-old children could vote. Then the Tassie Premier would be guaranteed a victory!
The staggering amount invested in 2022/23 Australian tourism projects revealed!
Any guesses on how much it was? We'll give you a hint: It's between $1 and $9 trillion (hope this helps).
Marriott’s Bonvoy Lounge makes it a 5-peat at Formula 1 in Melbourne
If Formula 1 is so good, then why isn't there a Formula 2? Oh there is one... Never mind.
Virgin Australia posts $236m profit, but the outgoing CEO warns of turbulence ahead
Hrdlicka warns of tough times ahead, just after announcing she's leaving. We wonder if there could be a connection!
Ascott opens new 255 room property in Central Sydney
Bored of your bedroom and want 255 new ones to try? The new Ascott property is here to solve this very specific problem!
Work and play at the Radisson RED, Auckland
We aren't going to tell you what order to work and play in, just that you should be looking to do both at Radisson Red.
Swiftonomics 101: Just how much did fans spend travelling to see Taylor Swift?
Thought you'd heard the last of Swift, huh? Not in your Wildest Dreams could Swiftomania go out of Style!
Rex posts a $13.3m turnaround for 1H24, but still at a loss
Rex is slowly making its way back to pre-pandemic form. Much like us with our sporadic attempts at exercise.