Thai blast strikes blow to tourism
The bomb blast that ripped through a Bangkok shrine, killing 20 and injuring scores, is certain to take its toll on tourism, the one bright spot in Thailand’s sputtering economy.
The Southeast Asian country’s tourism industry has expanded strongly in recent years, driven by rising numbers of Chinese tourists, which has helped offset the drag on growth from a decade of political instability.
In the bombing’s aftermath, some foreign travel agencies cancelled group tours and the baht sank to a six-year low. The country’s stock benchmark fell to its lowest point since the start of the year, led by tourism-related shares.
The explosion at the shrine, which is popular with Chinese visitors, will probably dampen their enthusiasm for Bangkok as a tourist destination. The industry has emerged stronger after every crisis the country has faced in the past decade, but the latest incident appears to mark a change by targeting tourists.
That raises questions about whether the impact on tourism will be short term or a crippling blow that drives visitors away for longer.
Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha called the bombing “the worst incident” to ever hit the country, saying: “This time they aimed for innocent lives. They want to destroy our economy, our tourism.”
Speaking to Travel Weekly, STA Travel’s ceo John Constable said while they continue to monitor the situation in Bangkok, no tours have been canned.
“Government Travel Advisories have been updated but none have advised against travel to Thailand, as a result flights and tours are currently operating as normal,” he told TW.
“Our staff are dealing with amendments to itineraries on a case-by-case basis for those due to travel imminently.
“Reports from our offices in Bangkok have confirmed that there is limited disruption. Only two roads have been closed and tours and day trips are operating as normal.”
A spokesperson from Intrepid Group also confirmed that all tours would be going ahead in Thailand, saying, “At this time, all the trips will continue to operate as normal but we’ll keep monitoring the situation with our local office on the ground in Bangkok and follow the advice of government travel advisories.”
At least 20 people were killed and 125 people injured in the explosion on Monday night, authorities said. They included two dead and 28 wounded from China, and two dead and two wounded from Hong Kong.
“In previous events in Thailand, at least in recent years, tourists have never been really the target,” said Mario Hardy, Bangkok-based chief executive of the Pacific Asia Travel Association.
“What’s different this time is that it was a prime tourist area that was affected.”
Tourism, which accounts for nine per cent of the Thai economy and employs several million people, “will be severely impacted”, Citibank analyst Jun Trinidad said in a research report.
More than 4.6 million Chinese visitors visited Thailand last year, and tourism officials expect their numbers to rise to 5.6 million in 2015. Chinese spend 5500 baht ($155) a day on average, more than most other nationalities, and account for about a fifth of all foreign visitors, factors that make them the biggest driver of tourism growth.
“We can certainly expect a dip in the Chinese arrivals in the coming weeks,” Hardy said.
Tourism arrivals had been forecast to rise to as much as 30 million this year from 24.8 million in 2014, but Hardy said those projections are now unlikely to be met. He said that if the bombing turns out to be a one-off incident, tourism levels will probably return to normal in three to six months.
Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note that tourist travel to Thailand tends to be sensitive to political upheaval. Chinese visitors have been “particularly sensitive to such instability”, with their numbers falling more than average after previous episodes of conflict.
The blast came hours after the government’s planning board issued a quarterly report on the economy that said growth slipped to 2.8 per cent in the April-June period from three per cent in the first quarter.
“Major constraints” on expansion for the rest of the year include weak global growth amid China’s slowdown and the depreciation of the yuan, which Beijing moved to devalue last week, sending many other Asian currencies lower.
The bomb went off on Monday evening at the Erawan shrine at a busy central Bangkok intersection with up-market shopping malls and hotels such as the Grand Hyatt nearby.
Attendants at the Hindu shrine speak fluent Mandarin and Cantonese, attesting to its popularity with ethnic Chinese, which may stem partly from tales recounted by Hong Kong and Taiwanese movie stars and pop singers to fans of how their wishes were granted after paying a visit.
The explosion was one of the most popular topics on Tuesday on China’s Twitter-like Weibo microblog service.
Wu Jun, a car dealership employee in Nanyang, Henan, said she and a friend were planning a trip later this month but she is now thinking twice.
“After the explosion, my family has been discouraging me from going there. I also have worries about the safety in Bangkok.” said Wu, 22. “What if there will be more terrorist attacks? But I am sitting on the fence now, torn with the decision if I should cancel trip or not.”
Wu said she does not want to cancel yet because the Chinese government has not issued a travel alert, which means she will not get her money back.
The Chinese embassy in Thailand reminded citizens to “strengthen awareness, pay attention to travel safety and arrange your travel plans accordingly”.
The United States, Japan, the Philippines and Australia issued similar advice. Hong Kong took stronger action, issuing a red travel warning for Bangkok, the second highest of three levels, prompting travel agencies in the Asian finance hub to cancel all package tours to Thailand until the end of the month.
Visitors already in Thailand were unnerved by the violence.
“Something very dangerous happened to people and nobody knows who it was, so, yeah, it’s scary,” said Mirjam Rodehacke of Switzerland.
Xue Jianjun, who was travelling with his family from Shaoxing in China, said they would try to avoid places with big crowds.
“After incidents like this it’s usually the safest period. I’m still pretty optimistic,” he said.
Hardy said the long-term impact of the explosion will depend on how the authorities manage the situation, though he is optimistic of a recovery.
“One thing that Thailand is good at is bouncing back,” he said. “The tourism resilience here is very good.”
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